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Prediction for CME (2026-06-11T00:36:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2026-06-11T00:36Z
DONKI Link: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/46775/-1
CME Note: Bright loop CME and shock first seen to the Northeast by SOHO LASCO C2 beginning at 2026-06-11T00:36Z, as well as by SOHO LASCO C3, STEREO A COR2 and GOES CCOR-1 in later frames. The source of this CME is a long duration C6.7 class flare from Active Region 14465 (N09E39) seen peaking at 2026-06-11T00:02Z. This flare can be seen in SDO AIA 131 along with a wide region of dimming, field line opening and an EUV wave seen in SDO AIA 171, 193, 211 and GOES SUVI 284. | Arrival note: Arrival signature characterized by a sharp jump in B_total from ~5 nT to ~8 nT accompanied by a sharp increase in solar wind speed form ~550 km/s to ~630 km/s as well as an increase in temperature from ~135k K to ~364k K and an increase in density from ~5 p/cc to ~14 p/cc. Starting around 2026-06-13T13:44Z, the magnetic field components become more stable with time until about 20:00Z, potentially indicating the presence of one or more passing flux ropes. This event is most likely associated with the arrival of CME: 2026-06-11T00:36Z. Two other CMEs, CME: 2026-06-09T16:36Z and CME: 2026-06-09T21:36Z, were also anticipated to provide very weak glancing blows within this timeframe, but have more likely missed.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2026-06-13T09:51Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2026-06-13T15:00Z (-6.0h, +6.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 60.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.0 - 6.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
Prediction Method Note:

Met Office ENLIL settings.
ENLIL version: 2.7
Resolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)
Ambient settings: a3b2-sa1
WSA version: 4.5
GONG: mrzqs
Note that this arrival time forecast is based on the simulation but is then adjusted by a human-in-the-loop.

Please specify following CME input parameters.
Time at 21.5Rs boundary: 26-06-11T04:40Z
Radial velocity (km/s): 700
Longitude (deg): 45E
Latitude (deg): 12N
Half-angular width (deg): 50

Notes: 
Space weather advisor: AG

Lead Time: 44.58 hour(s)
Difference: -5.15 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Met Office (Met Office) on 2026-06-11T13:16Z

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